Brazilian doctor Miguel Nicolelis warned on Sunday that Brazil is a warehouse for new strains of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes Covid-19 and could produce a new virus if the disease is not controlled, a SARS-CoV -3 ‘.
“At that moment, Brazil became the focal point, the epicenter of the pandemic, as more than a third of the deaths (..) in the US fell. Brazil is at the center [da doença] in the world, ”he told the neuroscientist from Lusa, who led a group of experts responsible for leading a consortium of governors in the northeast of the country to fight the pandemic for 11 months.
The physician and neuroscientist Miguel Nicolelis is a professor at Duke University in the USA and was already on a list of the world’s greatest scientists carried out by the journal Scientific American.
For Lusa, Nicolelis said the new strain, which is registered in the country and known as the Brazilian or Amazonian variant, is more transmissible, and while there is still no reliable data on its lethality, there is no certainty whether or not it is more deadly than other SARS-CoV-2 variants in circulation in the country and a warning sign as transmission can cause a new type of coronavirus to emerge.
“The danger is that we will give the coronavirus here in Brazil the chance to replicate and [infectar] between 70,000 and 80,000 people a day and this creates an incredible number of mutations in the virus. This can lead to new variants, and even at the limit, mixing genetic material from different variants can create a new virus, a SARS-Cov-3, ”he explained.
Nicolelis pointed out that the appearance of a new virus is still a theoretical possibility, but there is a biological likelihood that this scenario will occur.
Data released on March 5th from Imperial College London shows that the transmission rate for covid-19 in Brazil was 1.1.
“We are creating a huge reservoir of seriously infected people. We create [novas estirpes]like this Amazonian variant. It is very likely that there will be other variants in Brazil like this one in the US, ”he said.
“If you have a very large human reservoir of virus and the virus over reproduces, it is inevitable that accidental mutations will occur as the virus replicates. We give to biology [o vírus] what it takes to create mutations and variants, ”he added.
According to the Ministry of Health, Brazil has recorded an average of over 60,000 people in the past 14 days.
More than 11.2 million people have been diagnosed with the disease since the first case was confirmed in Brazilian territory on February 26, 2020.
More than 275,000 deaths from the disease have also been officially recorded.
Nicolelis also stated that the rate of growth and replication of the virus is constantly changing. Using the averages of the last 14 days to estimate a growth curve of cases and deaths, however, it can be predicted that Brazil will exceed expectations of the 500 mark thousand deaths from Covid-19 in July.
“In the case [do Brasil] The value is so high that there is still exponential growth that it is possible to just do the math. We have over 270,000 deaths if you do [um cálculo] With an average of two thousand deaths per day, there will be 180,000 deaths in the next 90 days. In three months we have recorded 450,000 deaths. When it comes to a complete breakdown, people will die and [muitos] You won’t even come to the hospital, ”he explained.
“If you use 2,000 to 3,000 on average [mortes diárias] it will reach five hundred thousand deaths in 90 days from the end of March. For three months, from April to July, there is little secret, it’s arithmetic, ”he warned.