Far beyond the merits of the Prime Minister’s return to normalcy plan, which undoubtedly exist, there is one obvious ambition in his draft: to gain political immunity from the pandemic crisis. By making decisions that depend on a mathematical combination that will determine whether the country is more suspicious, when it isn’t, or goes back under definition, the government has found its vaccine. The response to the progression of the coronavirus is based on contributions from science; If the science works, your choice will be a test of clairvoyance, rationality, and effectiveness. If the formula doesn’t work, the responsibility can always be related to the inadequacy of the criteria set by science, be it the 120 cases of infection per 100,000 people in the last 14 days or the famous index that measures transmissibility, R.
The government’s strategy is smart. Save yourself from the cyclical readings on the state of the pandemic. It frees you from the randomness of cleverness or daring. Limits the risk of uncertainty. From now on, ask for studies on R and the number of people infected in the past few weeks every 15 days and use the prescription automatically. Is it in the yellow box? Stay as you are. Out in the open? Go forward. Has that thing turned black and red? Withdraw. Or in other words: keep the restriction, go further or go back, political readings that involve complex things, such as educational level or company, will be omitted. The formula solves everything.
This strategy shows an obvious friendliness: even if there are dark areas between green, yellow and red that need a more precise definition, citizens know what to expect. There is, however, a no less obvious danger: believing that the pandemic will evolve on predictable lines and fit into static formulas. If in the period of 15 days, which happens in the first half of January, the logical or scientific mechanics of the formula can be risky – because if on the day of the decision the cases are below 120 and the R is below 1, it can be exactly in At this point, the suspicion arises that its progression will accelerate dramatically in the following days.
Nothing in the pandemic is predictable and even less known, it is said. It’s true. The government’s prescription, with all its kindness, logic, and rationality, doesn’t protect them from this reality – but it’s still a reasonable vaccine to immunize you against criticism. However, as with all vaccines, the effectiveness of colored squares is far from complete. We’ll see if it creates political antibodies or just provokes adverse reactions.