Deconfiguration. Green land, but with 47% of the municipalities outside the comfort zone | Congregational Analysis

Almost half of the country is outside the comfort zone that António Costa revealed this Thursday in the presentation of the deflation plan for the country. The Prime Minister showed a graph that will determine whether Portugal can move forward in the deflation process or whether it needs to come back in reopening shops, cafes and other activities.

In this rectangle, divided by colors and quadrants, there are two indicators: the cumulative incidence after 14 days – with the limit of 120 new cases per 100,000 population – and the transferability index, the famous R

The list includes counties that make up 60% of the country’s population – more than six million people. This comes from the most recent population data from the National Statistics Institute (INE).

António Costa made it clear that since the first phase of deflation is a national operation, a possible setback in the reopening of the various sectors can be assessed at the local level, taking into account the risky and neighboring communities.

Over 120 new cases – that is, in the yellow quadrant of incidence – are all municipalities in the Lisbon metropolitan area (18) and almost half of the municipalities in the Porto metropolitan area (eight of the 17). . Almost 3.5 million people live in these 26 alone (around 2.9 million in Lisbon and 610,000 in Porto).

If we raise the bar and consider communities with more than 240 new cases per hundred thousand inhabitants, which from now on are the value at which a community is considered at extremely high risk, there are currently 35 communities that have this “limit to be avoided” exceed ”As mentioned in the Prime Minister’s presentation on Thursday.

As for the transmission index (Rt), the report from the National Health Institute Dr. Ricardo Jorge (Insa) this Friday that Portugal had 0.8 between March 3rd and 7th. This indicator is not calculated for every municipality, but regionally none is above the limit of 1 set by the government: The Azores are the region with the highest value at 0.95, while the Algarve has the lowest Rt (0.68) . .

Experts defend the regional assessment

The graph shown by Costa had the incidence and the R

The former foreign minister, who devised a deconfirmation plan that served as the basis for the government plan announced on Thursday, adds that the behavior of the population of the communities – as well as – will have an impact on the development of the plan in connection with the fluctuations in the Pandemic. “What is expected is that for every church [a evolução] it will depend on the individual and collective actions and behaviors of the population, ”he summarized.

At the last meeting of Infarmed’s experts, Óscar Felgueiras focused on the goal of 60 new cases within 14 days, half of the target set by the government on the color card. In an interview with PUBLIC, the mathematician who specializes in epidemiology admits that his communication may have been misinterpreted.

“It was a goal to be achieved, but not to be suspected. It was suggested to start easing measures already, but the goal would be to reach 60. In the end, the government sets a goal that is “easier” to achieve (120). While it is simpler, the other is not the ultimate goal: it will last as long as it can be sustained. At some point there will be a low incidence, and the R

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